Changjiang Aluminum monthly review: Demand, macro environment multiple favorable aluminum prices rise (April)

First, the trend of spot aluminum

Rusal has been removed from the US sanctions list and has resumed aluminum supplies to the US market to regain market share. There is even news that the RUSAL smelter has officially launched a new capacity, doubling its annual production capacity to 298,000 tons. The expansion of production capacity has caused concerns about oversupply in the market, and the upside of spot aluminum prices in early April is limited.
In mid-to-late April, domestic economic data performed well, domestic inventories fell and consumer demand also improved, and aluminum prices received upward support; The stimulation of domestic automobile consumption has increased, and the production and sales of automobiles are expected to increase, which will drive the demand for industrial metals to pick up, and spot aluminum prices have risen.
CCMN data shows that the average monthly price of spot AOO aluminum ingots in the Yangtze River is 13,932 yuan per ton, an average monthly increase of 14 yuan/ton, after the average price of spot aluminum per ton in the Yangtze River in January was reported at 13,806 yuan, up 126 yuan/ton month-on-month, up 0.9% month-on-month.
 

Second, the trend of futures aluminum

The new production capacity of global aluminum enterprises and the resumption of production capacity have increased, the supply pressure of the aluminum market has not decreased, the market demand is unsatisfactory, and the price of London aluminum is under pressure; Concerns about the slowdown of the global economy dampened investor confidence, coupled with the US pre-imposed tariffs on EU products to enhance market risk aversion, the US dollar was strongly pressured by the momentum, and the price of London aluminum was weak. This month, the price trend of London aluminum generally maintained a volatile downward trend. The main focus of the market outlook is on the $1,800 support level.

In March, the national electrolytic aluminum output was 2.981 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%, the pressure on the supply side has eased, the domestic macroeconomic environment has gradually recovered, the tax and fee reduction policies have been gradually implemented, and the demand prospects for the aluminum market have been improved due to the decline in domestic and foreign inventories.

This month, the price trend of Shanghai aluminum maintained a volatile upward trend; The average monthly settlement price of the 1905 contract in Shanghai Aluminum was reported at 13,920 yuan, an increase of about 1.8% from the settlement price of the previous month; The monthly line rose by 3.55%.
 

3. Aluminum inventory analysis

This month, the inventory trend of London aluminum maintained a downward trend, and the latest inventory was reported at 1020875 metric tons, with a total inventory reduction of 101,950 metric tons, a decrease of about 9.1%; The total stock of aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this month was 638,030 tons, a decrease of 96,960 tons or about 13.2% from the previous month.
 

Fourth, this month's macro information

Domestically, in March, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose by 2.3% year-on-year, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month, returning to the "2 era" after a lapse of three months.

International: The International Monetary Fund predicts that 70% of the world's economies will grow in 2019. The global economic growth rate in 2019 was lowered to a new low since the financial crisis, and the US economic growth rate in 2019 was revised downgraded.
 

Fifth, this month's aluminum market dynamics

In January and March, the total global primary aluminum output rose to 5.414 million tons, and in February it was revised to 4.916 million tons.

2. In March, the national alumina output was 6.23 million tons, with a cumulative output of 18.248 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.60% and a cumulative increase of 11.10%.
 

Sixth, the outlook for aluminum prices

The loose macro environment, domestic and foreign inventories have declined, optimistic demand expectations, and multiple positive coexistence support the rise in aluminum prices, and spot aluminum prices have risen this month.

Judging from the current consumption situation, the consumption of electrolytic aluminum in the fields of construction, electronic power and transportation continues to increase, especially China's counter-cyclical infrastructure investment, urbanization rate continues to increase, and the demand for lightweight transportation is urgent, and it is expected that the consumption growth rate will be greater than the supply growth rate, and the domestic supply and demand gap may expand, and the aluminum price may rise. Spot aluminum prices may continue to fluctuate strongly in May.

(Source: Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Network)